AAA Predicts Slight Decrease in NJ Thanksgiving Travel

The following information was submitted to Patch from AAA.

AAA predicts that 795,000 New Jerseyans will travel 50 miles or more away from home this Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 4.8 percent decrease (40,000) from the 835,000 who traveled over the same period last year.

Nationally, however, AAA projects that 38.4 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home; a 1.4 percent increase (600,000) over the 37.8 million who traveled in 2008. This year's expected increase reflects improved consumer confidence, better financial market performance and a growing sense that the worst of the global economic crisis is behind us, AAA said.

"Thanksgiving is a family-oriented holiday and the desire to spend time with family and friends provides a strong incentive to travel," said Rick Zeckendorf, vice president of travel services for the AAA New Jersey Automobile Club. "AAA's overall projected increase in Thanksgiving holiday travel is yet another hopeful sign that economic conditions are stabilizing and improving in some areas."

Travel By the Numbers:

Automobile

• Nationally - 33.2 million (86.5 percent of travelers), an increase of 700,000 from the 32.5 million that traveled by car.
• New Jersey - 688,000 (approx. 86 percent of travelers), reflecting a 4 percent decrease from those that drove to their destination a year ago.

Plane

• Nationally - 2.3 million (6 percent of travelers), a 6.7 percent decrease from those who took to the skies in 2008.
• New Jersey - 52,000 (approx. 6 percent of travelers), a 13.3 percent decrease from last year.

Train, Bus, Watercraft or Other Mode

• Nationally - 2.9 million (7.5 percent of travelers) compared to 2.8 million one year ago, an increase of 1.2 percent.
• New Jersey - 54,000 (approx. 8 percent of travelers), a decrease of 3.6 percent compared to 2008.

"We can also be thankful that the gradual recovery we have been seeing in the U.S. travel industry since the start of the summer is continuing," Zeckendorf said.

Motorists driving to their Thanksgiving destinations can expect to see higher prices at the pump this year. The current nationwide average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is $2.63 - 71 cents more than the $1.92 per gallon average over the same period last year.

In New Jersey, motorists are paying an average of $2.51 for a gallon of regular gasoline - an increase of 64 cents from Thanksgiving 2008 ($1.87). Locally, a gallon of regular gasoline in North Jersey is averaging $2.56, up 64 cents from the $1.92 per gallon average one year ago.

Historical Perspective on Thanksgiving Gas Prices, average per gallon, in New Jersey:

2009:   $2.51 (current as of November 23, 2009)
2008:   $1.79
2007:   $2.93
2006:   $2.07
2005:   $2.08
2004:   $1.90
2003:   $1.48
2002:   $1.38
2001:   $1.09
2000:   $1.49

Thanksgiving travelers will log an average 815 miles roundtrip this year. More than one-third (37 percent) will travel 250 miles or less roundtrip. Slightly less than one-quarter (24 percent) of holiday travelers will average between 251 and 700 miles.  Thirty-eight percent will travel more than 700 miles roundtrip.

Travelers can expect to spend approximately $718 per household this Thanksgiving weekend. Transportation, accommodations, and food and beverage will account for 53 percent ($494) of trip spending. Shopping, entertainment and other expenditures will absorb the remaining 47 percent ($224).

According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index (LTI), airfares are estimated to be, on average, 4 percent lower than 2008. Car rental rates are down 3 percent compared to last year, with consumers paying an average of $44 per day. Hotel rates for AAA Two Diamond properties are expected to be about 13 percent lower than last year, with travelers spending an average of $92 per night. With rates at AAA Three Diamond properties about 11 percent lower than last year, travelers can expect to spend an average of $128 per night.

AAA's projections are based on research conducted by IHS Global Insight. The Boston-based economic research and consulting firm teamed with AAA earlier this year as part of an agreement to jointly analyze travel trends during the major holidays. AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. The complete AAA/IHS Global Insight 2009 Thanksgiving holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/News.